Demographic age structure and export technology complexity: empirical analysis based on cross-country panel data


XIONG Yonglian;XIE Jianguo;WEN Shuhui


School of Economics and Management, Changzhou Institute of Technology;School of Economics, Nanjing University;Faculty of Management and Economics, Kunming University of Science and Technology


By constructing a theoretical model, this paper demonstrates the relationship between the comparative advantage of capital goods exports and the changes in demographic age structure in countries with varying degrees of age structure. Based on the calculation method of Rodrik et al. (2006), this paper measures the complexity of export technology in different countries around the world, and tests the relationship between demographic age structure and export technology sophistication. The study finds that the demographic age structure change significantly affects the export technology sophistication in a country. The dependency ratio of children has a significantly negative impact on the sophistication of export technology. The old-age dependency ratio has a significantly positive effect on the sophistication of export technology. Further research has also found that the decline in the dependency ratio of children in low-income countries is more significant in promoting the advancement of export technology, while aging has little impact on export technology upgrading in low-income countries, and low fertility and high aging in high-income countries significantly promote export technology upgrading.


dependency ratio of children;old-age dependency ratio;export competitiveness;sophistication of export technology


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