The Nexus between Inflation Risk and Consumer Perception

【Author】

Kai Shi;Yuan Wang;Li Nie;

【Abstract】

This article discusses the relation between the risk of price instability and consumer perception.After quantifying the inflation/deflation risk,which introduces the preference of economic representatives as well as the whole probability distribution of price level deviating from the target zone,based on GARCH model and bootstrapping,we employ a stepwise least square to investigate the nexus between balance of risk and consumer perception.Although empirical results only find relatively weak connection between these two factors,the methodology opens a new window for future quantitative analyses.

【Keywords】

inflation risk;;consumer perception;;GARCH;;bootstrapping

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