FENG Jianfeng;CHEN Weimin
School of Government, Sun Yat-sen University;School of Economics, Nankai University
The relationship between population ageing and economic growth has aroused so much attention. However, there are few studies dedicating to the in-depth study on how population ageing affects economic growth. Therefore, this study theoretically analyzes the effect of population ageing on economic growth from the perspective of mediating effect and finds that there are three intermediary paths, and namely population ageing can affect economic growth by labor productivity, labor participation rate and the proportion of working-age population. Moreover, the statistical data of 31 provinces from 1990 to 2012 indicate that the three variables have significant mediating effects in deed. In addition, calculation results show that labor productivity and the proportion of working-age population contribute to the growth of per capita GDP, while the path of labor participation rate exerts a negative impact. From the perspective of growth path, the effect of ageing on economic growth is mainly driven by labor productivity. This is because the declined birth rate has prompted most parents to increase their investment in children’s education, which helps accumulate important human capital through knowledge teaching and skill training, though the expansion of higher education has delayed a large number of young workers entering the labor market. Therefore, given the time period covered by this empirical study, labor input is manifested more in quality (labor productivity) advantage in population ageing affecting economic growth, and that is, the rapid economic growth is achieved by improving labor productivity.
population ageing;economic growth;labor productivity;labor participation rate;mediating effect
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