Women’s fertility preference and fertility plan in urban China: an empirical study on the universal two-child policy

【Author】

JIN Yongai;SONG Jian;CHEN Wei

【Institution】

Center for Population and Development Studies, Renmin University of China;Center for Population and Development Studies, Renmin University of China;Center for Population and Development Studies, Renmin University of China

【Abstract】

Using the 2016 fertility survey data from 12 cities in 6 provinces of urban China, this study empirically investigates the fertility preference, fertility plan and their determinants for married women with one child in urban families. We find that 24.4% of women have a timetable for the birth of a second child, while 5.1% of women have intention but no timetable. Family backgrounds such as the number of siblings and whether a woman lives with her parents-in-law have significant impact on the fertility preference but are insignificantly associated with the fertility plan. In contrast, economic costs and caregiving burdens significantly affect women’s second childbearing plan but are insignificantly associated with the fertility preference. Gender preferences facilitate the bearing of a second child, meaning that women whose first child is a girl are more likely to plan for a second child. Finally, the gap between women’s fertility plan and fertility preference is mainly driven by practical factors such as women’s age, household income, availability of care and gender preference.

【Keywords】

the universal two-child policy;fertility preference;fertility plan;determinants

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