ZHAI Zhenwu;CHEN Jiaju;LI Long
Population Development Studies Center of Renmin University of China;Research Institute of Social Construction of Beijing;Population Development Studies Center of Renmin University of China;Population Development Studies Center of Renmin University of China
The implementation of the universal two-child policy will have a profound influence on China’s future trends of population and changing path of aging. Using the data from the 1% population sampling survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2015, this paper conducts simulations of the size and structure of China’s population over the years 2015–2100 by taking into account the potential demographic impacts of the fertility policy adjustment. The results show that China’s total population will grow to the peak in around 2029 and then enter the era of negative population growth. China’s population structure will be aging with shrinking working-age population size and expanding elderly population size. The speed of the decline in China’s proportion of working-age population will be fast before 2050 and slow with fluctuations after 2050. China’s size of elderly population will peak in around 2053 and then gradually begin declining. China will experience a rapid increase in proportion of elderly population before 2050 and the pace of population aging will slow down after 2050.
fertility policy adjustment;future trends of population;aging;working-age population
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