Re-examining China’s provincial socioeconomic development and fertility change

【Author】

TAO Tao;JIN Guangzhao;YANG Fan

【Institution】

Population Development Studies Center, Renmin University of China;School of Sociology and Population Studies, Renmin University of China;Population Development Studies Center, Renmin University of China

【Abstract】

This study explores the relationship between China’s provincial total fertility rate (TFR) calculated from census data and adjusted by scholars in 1982, 1990, 2000 and 2010 and the provincial human development index (HDI). China experienced rapid increase in the HDI and continuous decrease in the TFR at all provinces and shrinking regional disparities in both of them. The two variables are negatively correlated while the inhibition effect of HDI on TFR is gradually decreased. After dividing regions by different policy types, we find that the two still have negative correlation and without showing a J-curve relation in different category of regions, although Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin have reached the very high human development level which exceeds 0.788 in 2010. Unlike some western developed countries, China’s fertility level does not turn to rise with the socioeconomic development. Without adjusting fertility policy, the fertility level of all the provinces would continue declining with the socioeconomic development. A timely releasing of fertility policy can effectively restrain further decline of TFR.

【Keywords】

total fertility rate;human development index;policy adjustment;policy effect

References

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Springer Journals Database

Total: 11 articles

  • [1] 周江涛, A Study on the Influence of Chinese Economic-Social Factors on the Fertility Level in the 1990s, 华东师范大学,
  • [2] Tao Tao and Yang Fan are PhD Students,Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China.Beijing:100872, The Impact of China's Family Planning Policy on Demographic Transition, Population Research,
  • [3] Hu Angang;Wang Hongchuan;Wei Xing;, Human Development in Various Regions of China: Big Step and Large Convergence(1980-2010), Journal of Tsinghua University(Philosophy and Social Sciences),
  • [4] Wang Jinying is Dean and Professor,College of Economics,Hebei University,and Researcher of Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China.Ge Yanxia is Doctoral Student,Graduate School,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences., Assessment of 2010 Census Data Quality and Past Population Changes, Population Research,

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