Re-examining China’s provincial socioeconomic development and fertility change


TAO Tao;JIN Guangzhao;YANG Fan


Population Development Studies Center, Renmin University of China;School of Sociology and Population Studies, Renmin University of China;Population Development Studies Center, Renmin University of China


This study explores the relationship between China’s provincial total fertility rate (TFR) calculated from census data and adjusted by scholars in 1982, 1990, 2000 and 2010 and the provincial human development index (HDI). China experienced rapid increase in the HDI and continuous decrease in the TFR at all provinces and shrinking regional disparities in both of them. The two variables are negatively correlated while the inhibition effect of HDI on TFR is gradually decreased. After dividing regions by different policy types, we find that the two still have negative correlation and without showing a J-curve relation in different category of regions, although Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin have reached the very high human development level which exceeds 0.788 in 2010. Unlike some western developed countries, China’s fertility level does not turn to rise with the socioeconomic development. Without adjusting fertility policy, the fertility level of all the provinces would continue declining with the socioeconomic development. A timely releasing of fertility policy can effectively restrain further decline of TFR.


total fertility rate;human development index;policy adjustment;policy effect


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Total: 11 articles

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