The estimation of death underreporting in the 2010 population census based on DCMD model life tables

【Author】

LI Cheng;MI Hong;SUN Lingxue

【Institution】

School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University;School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University;Institute of Population and Development Studies, Zhejiang University;School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University

【Abstract】

Young-age and old-age death probabilities are essential for accurate estimation of life expectancy at ages 0 and 60, which have major implications for the formulation of endowment insurance and other policies. Previous studies have testified that death underreporting commonly exists in the mortality data of young-age and old-age groups, and various approaches of modification were offered. This paper recalculated sex-specific life tables of China and life expectancy at ages 0 and 60 for the 2010 population census based on the DCMD model life tables, using child mortality data from UNICEF, adult mortality information from IHME, and old-age mortality derived from the sex-specific population aged 60–75 in the census. The underreporting rates of young-age mortality and old-age mortality are estimated. The result shows that in the 2010 population census adjusted infant mortality is 16.41‰ for males and 15.94‰ for females, implying underreporting rates of 77.3% and 75.5% respectively; the adjusted old-age (from 60 to 89) death probabilities are 0.703 for males and 0.595 for females with the underreporting rates being 2.3% and 7.0% respectively.

【Keywords】

death underreporting;model life table;age pattern of mortality;population census

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