An assessment of mortality and life expectancy for China’s provincial regions: based on the 2010 provincial census data


YANG Mingxu;LU Bei


School of Public Management, South China Agricultural University;Center for Social Security and Welfare Governance Research, South China Agricultural University;ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research, University of New South Wales


Province-level mortality rates provide better indicators to describe the mortality pattern and its geographical differences than national level data. However, the limited data availability has made it hard to conduct research on province-level mortality and life expectancy. This paper employs age- and gender-specific mortality data, categorized by residential status (urban/rural), from the 6th census. In its analysis, the paper uses China National Maternal and Child Health Surveillance System (MCHS) data to modify the under 5 mortality rate (U5MR), applies Kannisto model to modify the mortality data of the oldest old people, and revises the mortality data for the elderly based on the comparison with Japan’s historical data from 1960 to 2010. In doing so, we are able to calculate life expectancy categorized by provincial region, gender, and residential status, providing five mortality patterns according to longevity and urban-rural division. The results show that in 2010, life expectancies at birth, 60 and 80 were 74.85, 19.44 and 6.90 respectively and that the variance of life expectancy in rural areas was larger than that in urban areas.


population census;age-specific mortality;life expectancy;the Kannisto model


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Total: 25 articles

  • [1] Zeng Yi 1,James W. Vaupel 2 (1. China Center for Economic Research,Beijing University,100871; 2. Institute of Population Research,Max Planck Institute,Germany), Chinese Oldest old Mortality and its Comparison with Sweden and Japan, Population & Economics,
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