HUANG Yanfen;ZHANG Chao;TIAN Shengdan
School of Public Administration and Policy, Renmin University of China;School of Public Administration and Policy, Renmin University of China;School of Public Administration and Policy, Renmin University of China
A question of considerable interest and importance is whether China’s population age structure changes caused by population aging and the universal two-child policy can improve household consumption in the new era. This paper constructed a comprehensive analysis framework of population age structure, housing price and household consumption, and conducted empirical research by using system generalized method of moments model. The results reveal that both the child and elderly dependency ratios have direct positive effect on the improvement of urban households’ consumption level and consumption structure, while the variable of housing price plays a significant negative moderating role on this positive effect. Therefore, this study proposed that the increase of dependency ratio brought by the universal two-child policy and population aging trend had great potential for consumption, and the dependency burden could be transformed into the demographic structure dividend. Furthermore, real estate regulation policies should be continued so as to avoid the excessively rapid rise of housing prices and unleash demographic structure dividend to help improve urban household consumption level and optimize urban household consumption structure.
population age structure;housing price;urban household consumption;structural effect;moderating effect
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