Quantitative research on the impact of blocked migration on national economy


ZHOU Tianyong


Dongbei University of Finance & Economics


This paper analyzes three forms of migration in urbanization, namely, the annual pendulum-type flow, young people’s moving to urban areas but returning to rural areas when they are old, and villager’s drifting in the cities. Considering China’s reality and based on standard values of the urbanization level and the proportion of agricultural labor force, this paper compares the lagging deviation of urbanization and civilization, and the mismatch of labor employment in the industry, calculates the loss of resident income, consumption demand and GDP output of the national economy when the system intervenes and hinders the population flow and migration. The results show that in 2016 population flow and urbanization lagged formed loss of CNY 3.7175 trillion at a standard value, accounting for 11.29% of the total national income of CNY 32.9375 trillion. The reduced consumption demand of supposed urban residents who were still in rural areas was CNY 2.6665 trillion. Meanwhile, the consumption demand loss by the residents from rural areas with their citizenship hindered by household registration was CNY 1.715 trillion. The total consumption demand loss was CNY 4.3815 trillion, accounting for 18.52% of total annual consumption of the year. Too many of laborers have been stuck in agriculture, which leads to the mismatch of the labor force industry. In 2016, the GDP loss was CNY 9.0281 trillion, accounting for 12.13% of the GDP of that year. The paper believes that this lagged effect will be continually accumulated latter on, which should be one of important reasons for the overproduction and the slowdown of the national economy.


population urbanization;migration;deviation;consumer demand;collapse


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Total: 13 articles

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