Development Research Center of the State Council;China Center for International Economic Exchanges
This article mainly discussed the impact of profound and complex changes in the international environment on China’s economic and social development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, analyzed the main characteristics of China’s transition to the high-quality development stage, and explained China’s newly proposed dual circulation development pattern in which domestic one plays a leading role while international one remains its extension and supplement. The new development pattern is an active adjustment in response to changes in the external environment and domestic development conditions. It is a strategic choice to make use of China’s ultra-large scale market and reshape its new advantages in international cooperation and competition. Internationally, the world is undergoing major changes unseen in a century, which indicating a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation at the productivity level, and becoming an important variable affecting global changes and the rise and fall of major powers. It is also manifested at production relations. The adjustment of economic globalization is triggering a shrinkage of the global industrial chain and supply chain, reshaping the global division of labor and governance system. As a result, changes in the balance of power and the intensification of the great-power games have become the biggest variables of the major change. The global pandemic of the COVID-19 has accelerated the evolution. China’s per capita GDP has exceeded USD 10,000, urbanization rate surpassed 60%, and population of the middle-income group exceeded 400 million. China’s shift to high-quality development is not only a transformation of stage, but also a transformation of mode. The main feature is the shift from catching-up in quantity to catching-up in quality, scale expansion to structural upgrading, factor driven to innovation driven, distribution imbalance to common prosperity, and high-carbon growth to eco-friendly development. This article analyzed China’s evolution to the dual circulation. It emphasized that the external environment is becoming increasingly complex and the international circulation is significantly weakened, fully tapping the potential of the domestic circulation is conducive to taking the ownership in an unstable and uncertain world. Taking the domestic circulation as the main body is not to form a closed one, but to form a more opened dual circulation. The core of building a new development pattern is circulation. The key to breaking up production, distribution, circulation, and consumption blockages is reform, promoting the free flow of factors and optimizing resources allocation, improving the cycling efficiency of the national economy, and enhancing its endogenous power. The production part focuses on smoothing the innovation chain, industrial chain and supply chain; the distribution part focuses on solving the problem of income distribution and urban-rural income gap; the circulation part focuses on strengthening the construction of a modern circulation system and smoothing the circulation of the financial industry and the real economy; and the consumption part focuses on expanding household consumption and promoting consumption upgrades. This article analyzed the theoretical logic and development conditions of the new development pattern in multiple dimensions, and proposed the main path to the new development pattern. Specifically, it is necessary to enhance independent innovation capabilities to accelerate technological self-reliance, promote advanced industrial foundation to improve the stability and competitiveness of the industrial chain; it is necessary to persist with the strategy of expanding domestic demand to release the potential of domestic demand, build a high-level socialist market economy system to improve the efficiency of the national economy, and promote a higher level of opening up to reshape new advantages in international cooperation and competition.
changes unseen in a century;high quality development;new development pattern;the 14th Five-Year Plan period
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