XIE Rui;CHEN Xiangjie;ZHU Bangzhu
School of Economics and Trade, Hunan University;School of Economics and Trade, Hunan University;School of Business, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
The anti-globalization trend has been surging since the financial crisis. Meanwhile, the global value chains (GVCs) has unprecedentedly strengthened the economic links between countries. The economic growth of China, the USA, and Germany, as the three core countries in the GVCs network, can have important spill effects on other economies through international production and consumption links. Therefore, the global inclusiveness of economic growth in China, the USA, and Germany is a crucial prerequisite for building an inclusive globalization process and achieving sustainable globalization. Quantifying assessment of the global inclusiveness of economic growth in China, the USA, and Germany, and revealing its driving factors have also become the core issues of this paper. This paper believes that the connotation of the global inclusiveness of economic growth should include two aspects. The spillover effects of a country’s economic growth should benefit different countries and groups; the influence should be balanced, that is, it is conducive to narrowing the economic gap between different countries and the income gap between different groups. This paper designed a quantitative model to estimate the global inclusiveness of economic growth and a structural decomposition model to reveal its influencing factors by employing the gross margin return on investment (GMRIO) model, which can reflect the complete economic connection between countries. Further, by using the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) database, we evaluated the global inclusiveness of economic growth in China, the USA, and Germany. The results show that the scale of the value-added spillover from the economic growth in China, the USA, and Germany to the rest of the world has generally increased, and inclusiveness is enhancing in the growth dimension. China’s economic growth has experienced rapid growth in wage spillover for workers with different skill, and its inclusiveness has been enhanced in income distribution dimension, while the economic growth of the USA and Germany has shown a downward trend in wage spillover for low-skilled workers. China’s economic growth is more conducive to reducing the income gap of workers with different skill levels. Further analysis shows that during the research period, the change of GVCs has promoted the value-added spillover of China’s and Germany’s economic growth and has inhibited the value-added spillover of the USA’s economic growth. After the financial crisis, the degradation of GVCs is not conducive to countries sharing the growth of China, the USA and Germany. Meanwhile, the decline in the income share of low-skilled workers has become an important factor constraining the improvement of global inclusiveness in income distribution dimension. This paper believes that maintaining the global multilateral trading system and deepening the GVCs are of great significance for countries to share the development achievements of the core country in GVCs network. Taking appropriate measures to improve the income distribution between different-skilled labor is more urgent than improving the labor-capital relationship. China is capable and should play a more important role in building an inclusive globalization process. Compared with existing literatures which focused on the inclusiveness within a country and mostly qualitative analysis, this paper theoretically expands the global connotation of the concept of inclusive growth and proposes a corresponding measurement method. The conclusions of this paper help us to recognize the problems in the current globalization process and provide a basis for finding feasible ways to solve these problems. In the future, the following subjects are worthy of further exploration. On the one hand, the global inclusiveness of economic growth in major countries can be tracked through continuous data updating; on the other hand, based on the indicator system constructed in this paper, the interaction between the degree of global inclusiveness of economic growth and other economic variables can be further explored.
economic growth;global inclusiveness;global value chain effect;income distribution;GMRIO
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